On December 8th, 2022, Dr. Nikolay Murashkin, a research fellow at the JICA Ogata Research Institute, gave a lecture at Ritsumeikan University titled “New Challenges to Japan’s Indo-Pacific Vision: COVIDtivity and the 2020s ‘Kindleberger Moment.’” 

Dr. Murashkin argued that the “Kindleberger moment” and “COVIDtivity” are new structural factors in the international system. The former refers to a period when there is an opportunity for intervention (or inaction) by major powers to play a leadership role in providing public goods due to economic and financial turmoil. The ongoing economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has caused anxiety among states and created an opportunity for major powers to assert themselves as hegemons that provide public goods. The COVIDtivity is a portmanteau word that refers to connectivity infrastructure shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has disrupted global and regional connectivity in diverse ways, disrupting and reshaping global value chains, affecting people’s mobility, and incentivizing state and commercial actors to readjust their approaches to connectivity infrastructure and finance. 

Dr. Murashkin defined connectivity infrastructure as physical transport infrastructures—such as railways, motorways, maritime ports, airports, rail-to-port linkages, pipelines, telecoms, utilities, power and energy—connectivity inside value chains, connectivity of infrastructure (e.g., Internet of Things) and car connectivity. Moreover, he argued that studying connectivity matters because history teaches us that connectivity infrastructure and geopolitics are closely intertwined.

In addition, Dr. Murashkin explained Japan’s foreign policy and development cooperation infrastructure vis-à-vis Asian and Eurasian countries. He emphasized that although Japan’s investment policies are often seen as a reaction to China’s infrastructure investment, that analogy is misleading because Japan had invested heavily in infrastructure long before China’s Belt and Road initiative. One key motivation for Japan to invest in infrastructure overseas is to profit as domestic demand is dwindling. 

Dr. Murashkin concluded with three points that summarize his lecture: the sphere of today’s international political economy is in “a state of flux”; connectivity infrastructure and financial aid are essential elements in economic development; and while the competition over infrastructure and financial aid between/among major lenders may have an advantage for the recipients, this could also lead to weaponization and excess politicization of foreign aids that have adverse effects.

During the Q&A session, the audience asked many interesting questions, such as those regarding the situation in Indonesia amid competition between Japan and China in the realm of infrastructure development and whether the COVIDtivity will endure in the years to come.