【Report】Is Hedging Speculative, Indecisive, and Naive?

Cheng-Chwee Kuik (National University of Malaysia)

On February 20, 2026, Prof. Cheng-Chwee Kuik of the National University of Malaysia gave a presentation on hedging behavior in international politics at Ritsumeikan University.

Prof. Kuik’s presentation centered on countering three commonly heard criticisms of the concept of “hedging” in international relations—namely, that hedging behavior is 1) speculative, 2) indecisive, and 3) naive.

In the presentation, Prof. Kuik emphasized that each of the three characterizations of hedging behavior is wrong. He argued that hedging is not speculative behavior; rather, it is a behavior that minimizes uncertainty by actively avoiding speculation. Hedging is also not indecisive behavior because it derives from a choice not to decide. Moreover, hedging is not a naive state behavior as it is a pragmatic approach to adapting to international and domestic political environments.

Prof. Kuik then defined the concept of “hedging” in international relations to underscore its importance. He explained that hedging is an active form of neutrality that avoids taking a side. It is also an inclusive way of diversifying economic, political, and strategic partners to mitigate the risks of over-dependency and pursue wealth, security, and autonomy. Furthermore, hedging is an adaptive behavior used by states to offset political and economic risks to preserve their agency. Prof. Kuik concluded his presentation by arguing that hedging is only a temporary approach for smaller states to preserve agency. Hedging states choose to hedge based on their perceptions of threat and reliable support from friendly states. However, as their perceptions change, they may opt for balancing or bandwagoning strategies.

The presentation ended with a Q&A session. Audience members asked many questions—such as whether hedging is best conceptualized as a well-calibrated strategy executed by states or as a theoretical framework for analyzing foreign policy, whether hedging behavior derives from domestic political culture or from external structural necessities of international politics, and what the failure of hedging looks like.